Defensive Disconnect

Another week and another salvaged point for FC Cincinnati but the defense might just be fine.

Defensive Disconnect
Photo by Will Francis / Unsplash

Another week and another salvaged point for FC Cincinnati.

After coming from behind, down a man, against Toronto the previous week, the Orange and Blue did it again, minus the numerical disadvantage, on Saturday, making up a two goal deficit in the second half to split the points with the Chicago Fire in the West End.

Defensively, this season has been an inversion of the last one. In 2025, the Orange and Blue didn't concede many goals but allowed its opponents a lot of good opportunities. So far in 2026, FCC has been much better at limiting the number of quality scoring opportunities for opposing sides but more goals are going in.

On Saturday, the Fire generated just one better than average shot and it was Philip Zinkernagel's converted penalty in first half stoppage time. Other than that, Chicago averaged just 0.06 expected goals per shot on its other 17 attempts. That is far from efficient.

But two other shots ended up in the back of the net. There wasn't much Roman Celentano could do about Hugo Cuypers' second goal, a very well taken volley in the 48th minute that ended up in the side netting of the goal. Cuypers' first goal, however, well, Celentano probably wants that one back.

There's certainly an element of Ball Goes in Sometimes impacting the Orange and Blue's early season results. However, Saturday was also a pretty good example of the differences goalkeepers' shot stopping can have on a game, and even across a season.

Contrasts In Goal

Chicago's Chris Brady has been the best shot stopper in MLS at this point in season. Including Saturday, he's faced shots totaling 12.42 post-shot expected goals and allowed just seven goals. Through eight games, Brady's 2026 is the best shot stopping season in the American Soccer Analysis database, eclipsing Djordje Petrovic's 2022 and Matt Turner's dominant run during his first stint in New England. Simply put, Brady is making a huge, positive difference for the Fire, papering over some defensive issues.

In contrast, FCC's keepers, Celentano and Evan Louro, have faced a very similar level of danger - shots totaling 13.82 PSxG - but conceded 17 goals. Celentano has been a consistently solid albeit not an elite shot stopper throughout his MLS career, so we should still assume he'll regress positively to the mean. However, if you're looking for a reason why the ball continues to go in for FCC's opponents, the goalkeeping deserves some blame.

Even if the goalkeeping doesn't markedly improve, the Orange and Blue's opponents are unlikely to continue the finishing hot streak they've been on for much of the season. Both of Chicago's open play goals were the result of excellent individual play from Cuypers - his touch to settle the ball on this first and his finish on the second. That's not likely to happen every single week.

Somewhat counterintuitively, I'm more positive about FCC's defense than I was at the beginning of the season. The unit has had rough moments, certainly, and conceded a lot of goals but their ability to largely limit opponents to not great scoring opportunities is a solid foundation on which to build.

Gidi's Role

Matt Doyle flagged Samuel Gidi's deeper positioning in his Sunday Roundup but it's worth expanding on it even further.

Even before the Orange and Blue went down a goal, Gidi was operating deeper on the field than we've seen. Exactly what Pat Noonan's tactical instructions to Gidi were aren't clear, but, out of possession, he often occupied the position of a center back in FCC's default 4-4-2 defensive shape. With Gidi next to Miles Robinson, and frequently man marking Robin Lod, Gilberto Flores and Nick Hagglund were free to step forward aggressively to chase runners into midfield.

In possession, Gidi's deeper positioning provided more passing ability to a backline that needed it as well giving more space for Evander and Pavel Bucha to operate higher in midfield. It also meant that he was in better position to help snuff out counter attacks following turnovers higher up the field.

Other than conceding the first half penalty, Gidi was solid throughout the game. His positional flexibility allowed Noonan to get to the team's preferred setup in an unconventional way and it'll be worth watching to see if that was a one-off switch to adjust to Chicago or if the coaching staff has found an answer moving forward. With a short turnaround until Wednesday's game in the Bronx against NYCFC, we won't have to wait too long before getting more clarity, too.