Checking In (1/3 Edition)

Apologies for the gap between newsletters. I've been busy with some other stuff and haven't had the time necessary to do the watching and thinking and writing to finish something that I was happy with to y'all. I'm hoping to be back on a regular schedule before having more time to dig into some bigger picture stuff, and there's a lot to get to, during FC Cincinnati's World Cup break.

After Saturday night's 2-2 draw in Charlotte, FC Cincinnati crossed the one-third mark of the 2026 Major League Soccer season. With twelve league games in the books, we're at a point where there have been enough games that small sample sizes are playing less of a factor and true team quality is shining through.

I've written plenty about how the Orange and Blue's results in 2025 were largely out of step from the quality of play on the field. FCC scored more goals than the quality of their chances suggested, driven in part by generational hot streak from Evander on shots outside the box, and conceded fewer than expected.

Through 12 games in 2026, we can safely conclude FCC wasn't somehow built different to win close games. The regression to the mean has come, and with that, supporters of the Orange and Blue are having to contend with a now unfamiliar feeling - mediocrity.

Here are some things I think I know about the Orange and Blue, at least right now.

FC Cincinnati is a better soccer team in 2026...but not by that much

The standings disagree, clearly, but hear me out. At this point last year, the Orange and Blue were sitting on 25 points compared to just 16 this year but underlying numbers suggest.

Let's start with the positives. The offseason leading into this season was dominated by conversations about what changes FCC would make to address a perceived offensive underperformance in 2025. So far, so good. This season has been much better. The Orange and Blue have been far more dangerous in 2026, scoring six more goals and producing nearly six more xG as well through 12 games. Those totals are good enough for 6th highest per game in MLS according to American Soccer Analysis data. Some of that is a result of solid play from FCC's marquee attackers playing up to their billing:

• Evander: In nearly 1,000 minutes, Evander's 0.32 expected assists (xA) per 96 minutes and 0.30 non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) are solid if not elite numbers.
• Kévin Denkey: Even if he's only averaging 2.26 shots per 96 minutes, Denkey's 0.50 NPxG ranks in the top 20 in MLS.

There's lots more to dig into when FCC has the ball, but those things are deserving of more analysis. Manager Pat Noonan has tweaked the team's starting, in part due to forced changes through injuries and red card suspension, but early returns are interesting at the very least.

Even so, in the offseason, General Manager Chris Albright talked about creating more danger with the ball. Through the first third of the season, the Orange and Blue have largely accomplished that goal. That's not to say there isn't room for improvement, but the team's attack has certainly been more dangerous in 2026.

Defensively, things haven't improved, seemingly indicating that the bottom has totally fallen out of the Orange and Blue's ability to prevent goals. The reality is a little more complicated.

If you're just looking at goals, the difference between last year and this year certainly seems like a major step back. However, FCC relied on defensive smoke and mirrors for its strong defensive record in 2025. Through twelve games last year, the Orange and Blue had allowed just 13 goals but conceded nearly 20 expected goals against (xGA). Some of this has to do with a strong shot stopping season from Roman Celentano, but not all. In contrast, this year, FCC has conceded 25 goals (excluding own goals) on 22.24 xGA.

To be clear, the Orange and Blue's defense hasn't been good. The team has conceded the 7th highest xGA per game in MLS through May 10. Not exactly a solid foundation to build a team around, especially with the amount of resources allocated to defensive players on the roster.

However, FCC's defense allowed opponents a lot of good chances last year, too. The Orange and Blue's defense hasn't been very good, but it wasn't really very good last year, either - mostly lucky. That luck hasn't been on the Orange and Blue's side in 2026.

The optimistic take would be that there are plenty of things that could spur a return to FCC's old (effective) defensive ways. After a tough start to the season, Roman Celentano has had a couple strong shot stopping games in a row. Miles Robinson and Matt Miazga appear to close to returning full time and Andrei Chirila has been a revelation, even though he has some defensive rough edges (much, much more on him in a later edition of this newsletter).

From a pessimistic perspective (and the most realistic one, maybe), the Orange and Blue have struggled to contain opponents and prevent good scoring chances for well over a full season. Why would that change now?

Which means...

The Orange and Blue might just be a pretty average MLS team, destined for a non-home field advantage seed or even the play-in round come playoff time.

Even though FCC is putting in better performances on the field, the team isn't that much better, and the Orange and Blue in 2025 were historical over performers. The step down from 2025's points total to a performance more in line with advanced numbers feels much worse even if the team is actually playing slightly better.

Again, this feels like a disappointing opening part of the season, and considering the expectations surrounding the team, it is. However, considering the information we had last year, and the moves to essentially run back the same general approach with some upgraded pieces, FC Cincinnati in 2026, to borrow from Dennis Green, are basically who we thought they were. It's just that the results aren't all going in FCC's favor right now.

For a team, and a fanbase, that has come to expect its role as a perpetual silverware contender under Albright and Noonan, just fine is a jarring place to be. Albright said there's space to make moves in the summer, and he's never been shy about taking action to try and improve the team. However, with a season and third of unimpressive (at best) underlying numbers, more substantial changes might be needed at some point to get FC Cincinnati back among the elites of league.