All data from FBref unless otherwise notes

Filling Out The Depth Chart

As FC Cincinnati battled through a heavy early season schedule featuring nine games in 31 days, midfield depth has bubbled up to become a major talking point. Though Tah Brian Anunga, provides solid cover for Obinna Nwobodo, no player on the roster really provides backup for Pavel Bucha.

In his second season in Orange and Blue, Bucha has emerged as an integral piece to Pat Noonan’s vision for the team in 2025. He’s a key link between defense and attack when FCC looks to progress the ball up the field. Bucha’s feel for space allows him to find open pockets between pressing opponents, and once he receives a pass, his comfort and technical ability allow him to play on the half-turn to attack out-of-shape defenses.

However, building a plan around one player - especially one consistently expected to cover so much ground - comes with significant risks. The Orange and Blue struggled against the Philadelphia Union without Bucha in the middle of the field.

Yuya Kubo replaced Bucha in the second leg of the CONCACAF Champions Cup against Tigres in Monterrey but he looked lost defensively. On his best days, Kubo’s on-ball ability should replicate at least some of Bucha does but, with just two central midfielders on the field in most situations, defensive discipline is also a must have for a Bucha replacement.

So that leaves the team looking to the outside for midfield depth. With the current makeup of the roster, a U22 initiative1 signing seems the most likely path for the Orange and Blue to add a quality player who could take some pressure off FCC’s Czech midfielder.

So let’s play an exceedingly simple version of armchair GM.

Identifying What Needs Backing Up

One of the key uses of data in soccer is the role it can play in player recruitment. It can act like a funnel, narrowing a planet full of professional soccer players to a smaller number who have demonstrated they can fill a specific role on a specific team.

One of the best public examples of bucketing players into various position profiles comes from Mike Imburgio and Sam Goldberg published DAVIES at American Soccer Analysis published in 2020 by Mike Imburgio and Sam Goldberg. Using FBref data, you can use it on Mike’s DAVIES app still.

There’s one wrinkle to any potential U22 signing: the long-term status of Nwobodo in Orange and Blue. Ideally, any midfield signing should be able to act as a backup to Bucha this year but then also potentially play next to Bucha, either as a substitute for Nwobodo or as a starter.

At it’s most basic, FCC needs a player who fits U22 Initiative requirements, can do some forward passing and has some level of defensive solidity. FBref’s excellent Stathead allows sorting players in its database based on a variety of factors.

This season, Bucha is averaging 5.44 progressive passes per 90 minutes and 2.71 tackles + interceptions per 90 mintues. That’s overly simplistic but it provides a base level of some important things FCC needs out of any midfield addition.

In this simple scenario, I set it to find players who were:

1. under 22-years-old playing in Fbref’s “Next 14” leagues2,

2. played at least 10 90s in the 2023-24 or 2024-25 season3,

3. averaged more than 4.5 progressive passes per 90 minutes,

4. averaged 3 tackles + interceptions per 90 minutes.

The search returned just 18 names. Five of them, Pedro Vite, David Ayala, Ajani Fortune, Federico Redondo, and Ronald Donkor, are already playing in MLS. Others are on loan from Big Five European leagues, like Lorenzo Amatucci and Ebenezer Akinsanmiro in Italy’s Serie B and Shea Charles in the English Championship.

18-year-old Brazilian Breno, who averaged 6 progressive passes/90 and 3.2 tackles+interceptions/90, for Corinthians seems like he might be the most promising out of the bunch and clearly lots of other teams realize that too since he has a reported ~$17 million release clause.

A big caveat with this hypothetical is that we’re looking at publicly available data. FCC’s front office has access to far more leagues, at least based on comments previously made about the team’s scouting process, expanding the pool of players at the top of the funnel.

MLS teams have made steady progress up the food chain in the global soccer economy. However, top European leagues will still hoover up the best young talent from the across the world, making Chris Albright’s job in finding U22 talent that much more difficult. Finding a player who could reasonably expected to contribute in 2025 and beyond based on prior performances is difficult.

The nature of U22-eligible players means banking on players without much of a track record at the highest level meaning error bars on a signing are wider than a team might otherwise be comfortable with. The importance of on-the-ground scouting becomes even more important but projecting soccer players into the future is a incredibly difficult.

Signing a U22 midfielder makes a lot of sense in the summer window but the way the initiative is structured lends to taking big swings. As always signing the right player is more important than signing a player. With limited information on young players, convincing yourself that a potential signing is the right one is that much more difficult. Hopefully, how tall a task that is is a little bit clearer now. It certainly is to me.

What I’m Curious To See More

In days following FCC’s home draw against Atlanta United, I’m wondering if the Orange and Blue’s second half adjustments provide a blueprint for what the team’s strongest lineup looks like for the rest of 2025.

What the pregame lineup graphic looks like, 4-2-3-1 or 5-2-1-2 or 5-2-2-1, doesn’t really matter. For all intents and purposes, the goal is to get to the same shape in possession that we’ve seen most commonly this year: 3-2-5.

The key change here is DeAndre Yedlin’s role. Up to this point, Yedlin has largely pushed higher up the field, providing width on the right. The problem is Yedlin hasn’t really been a dangerous final third attacker since, well, ever, really. According to American Soccer Analysis data, since his return to Major League Soccer in 2022, there have been 245 fullback seasons in which a player played at least 1,000 minutes. Yedlin’s 47th, 110th, and 199th in expected assists (xA) per 96 minutes.4

However, FCC had success with him sitting deeper against Atlanta after Corey Baird subbed on to start the second half. Baird provided a different kind of option to Yedlin, allowing the Orange and Blue to play in tighter spaces on the sideline and he was successful finding teammates in the middle of the final third.

Reorienting Yedlin’s positioning to a more central part of the field and asking him to play more forward passes as well as to keep the ball moving rather than trying attack defenders on the dribble from wide seems like better use of his skill set. If needed, and space allowed, Yedlin could also provide overlapping centerback runs if needed, and making a run from deep might provide a clearer channel considering he’d be an extra runner to be accounted for by defenders.

Defensively, the team would have flexibility, either dropping into a 4-4-2 block, with Yedlin at right back, or continue to defend in a back five, with Yedlin sitting centrally and Baird filling in as a wingback. Playing with two other “true” centerbacks, any aerial liabilities from Yedlin should be able to be managed. Additionally, his pace and deeper starting positioning should be a big help in snuffing out counter attacks following turnovers in the final third.