Monday Takeaways (3/31/25)

All stats courtesy of FBref unless otherwise noted

1. Three Points But…

(Obvious) first things first: a win is better than not winning.

Taking a step back, however, and Saturday night in Nashville marks another game in the 2025 season where FC Cincinnati just didn’t look great. The team still hasn’t really put things together and looked like the worse side for large stretches of Saturday’s game.

However, with the help of an Evander free kick just before halftime and a Kévin Denkey penalty in extra time, the Orange and Blue secured victory. That doesn’t mean that there aren’t real questions to be asked about FCC’s performance.

Simply put, FCC is allowing its opponents too many good chances while not creating many itself. In 2024, an elite defense papered over a lot of offensive cracks early in the season. That hasn’t been the case so far in 2025.

Good soccer teams will have bad days. Sometimes they will have to find a way to turn a loss into a draw and a draw into a win, even when outplayed. Unfortunately, Saturday’s performance wasn’t a one-off. Through the team’s first six league games, it has produced a higher expected goals total than its opponents just twice: against New York Red Bulls and Toronto FC.

In FCC’s other four league games, the team’s expected goals difference (xGD) is a combined -4.3. Yes, the sample size is too small to be drawing real conclusions but it’s a worrying trend. The start to the 2025 season is the worst in Pat Noonan’s managerial tenure by expected goals difference.

As noted above, the major caveat here is that ten games is usually the time to start looking at advanced numbers as something that can be predictive of future performance. With six league games completed, there’s still space to write off some relatively unimpressive performances. Whether you want to cite early season fixture congestion or heavy turnover in the team starting eleven or something else, the team hasn’t looked like many assumed it would.

With each passing week, the questions will grow louder if the Orange and Blue don’t start playing like the better team. There’s no reason to panic at this point - far from it, in fact - but it’s something to keep an eye on as the season progresses.

2. More of that, Please

Now that the bummer part of this post is out of the way, there are some reasons for optimism stemming from FCC’s performance in Nashville.

Saturday brought another second half with a adjustment by Noonan that paid dividends. Again we saw DeAndre Yedlin drop deeper in possession, occupying the same line as Miles Robinson and Gilberto Flores instead of pushing up and providing width.

In the first half, Nick Hagglund and Flores struggled to make incisive, line-breaking passes, hampering FCC’s ball progression. Like last week, Yedlin’s passing provided an upgrade, moving the ball horizontally around Nashville’s press when needed but also taking advantage of space to attack vertically.

Luca Orellano benefitted as he could occupy a wider position. In his post-game press conference, Noonan said after subbing out Hagglund at halftime, the team, “changed our press that allowed Luca [Orellano] to deal with Lovitz and then we were going to have Sergio deal with Bauer.” Orellano was much more involved offensively in the second half, especially on the dribble, and occupying the wide space instead of the half-space, he could receive the ball facing Nashville’s goal more often and drive forward.

After Roman Celentano’s trio of saves early in the second half, the Orange and Blue largely were the more dangerous team, in no small part due to its consistent ability to move the ball into the final third. Though that possession didn’t translate to clear cut chances there were some sequences that came close. The optimistic take away would be that we’re starting to see patterns of play that can consistently lead to scoring opportunities.

When FCC’s attempts to build out of the back work and the team can switch the point of attack quickly, finding Orellano or Evander in space to drive forward, the attack suddenly looks very dangerous. It’s just a matter of getting those players in those situations more often. Noonan might have figured out a more consistent way to do it with Yedlin sitting deeper. Hopefully we’ll see more of it in the coming weeks.

3. A Little More About Luca

To my eye, Orellano had his best game of 2025 on Saturday, especially in the second half as he found more space to operate. Orellano finished the game with major contributions in ball progression, completing passes to teammates, receiving passes up the field, and just carrying it towards Nashville’s goal on the dribble himself.

His shot selection was better, too. With the exception of his now ubiquitous from way out there in the 70th minute, he maneuvered into more dangerous positions to take his five other shots. Though none were really clear cut chances, it was good see Orellano take an extra touch (or two or three) to set himself up for a better look at goal.

Though he still isn’t totally on the same page with Denkey, Evander, and the rest of the Orange and Blue in the final third, Orellano played a much more substantial role in the attack on Saturday. If FCC is to turn the corner and start being the better team on a weekly basis, the team will need Orellano to play a major role in that shift by scoring himself but also setting up teammates. Saturday certainly looked like a step in the right direction.