Somehow, there are just nine games left in the NWSL regular season. For the Washington Spirit, the shield remains a possibility, albeit a slight one, with the team trailing Gotham FC by five points (though there's a classic six pointer on the horizon at Audi). But by the advanced numbers, the Spirit have fallen away from the top teams in the league. Simply, they haven't been at their best lately. Why?

Following the team's 3-0 loss to Boston, head coach Adrián González fielded questions about an ineffective attack, though the ensuing trip to Chicago reliably helped quell some offensive concerns. There will still plenty of time to reckon with an attack that isn't quite as dangerous as it should be in the run up to the playoffs. But, to me, the biggest question as the season has unfolded is what's happening when the Spirit don't have the ball.

The First Three Quarters

The way I see it, there are a couple relatively clean segments into which the Spirit's season can be divided: before, during, and after the Women's Africa Cup of Nations.

Before WAFCON, the Spirit played like one of, if not the, best teams in the league. Yes, they did it through an attack elevated by Trinity Rodman who has seemingly fully embraced a more goal scoring role playing on the left side of the field. But the real star of the show was the team's defensive efforts.

Then, during the Women's Africa Cup of Nations, the Spirit held on as the team dealt with missing pieces impacting both the starting eleven and key depth. Even though the Spirit didn't lose a player as individually influential as Barbra Banda or Temwa Chawinga, the absences of Rose Kouassi, Gift Monday, and Deb Abiodun made it impossible to play in the way it had earlier in the season.

Post-WAFCON, things have settled down a little bit, even with some frustrating results, the underlying numbers have been much closer to those that you'd expect from a good team. But the Spirit haven't bounced back defensively, at least not to the level we saw earlier in the season. And that might matter when the games really start to matter.

Regaining Control

So what's happened?

Early in the season, the Spirit monopolized the ball in the attacking third of the field, winning the ball back relatively quickly. I wrote about the Spirit's emphasis on controlling games in midfield and more or less letting their attackers out-talent defenders. Even if they turned the ball over, or lost one-vs-one opportunities, the Spirit's press won the ball quickly and let them try again.

That combination helped to limit opponents to the second lowest on-ball value in the league, an elite defensive performance.

During WAFCON, the story is pretty straightforward. As the Spirit dealt with the aforementioned absences, and the knock on effects they had on the depth chart the Spirit were a different team. Opponents were able to keep the ball in the Spirit's defensive third more, and though Washington continued to win the ball back quickly...they just couldn't really do much with it. The team's elite defensive record turned into a below average one and its defenders had to do a lot of defending.

Post-WAFCON, the Spirit are back to dominating the ball and winning it back quickly. But they're still allowing opponents good opportunities. Just look how much defending the two center backs and right back have had to do for the last month!

A necessary caveat is that the Spirit have played just five games in the post-WAFCON period. Those games have featured some outlier performances that potentially skew the numbers in a small sample size. For instance, a big chunk of Portland's xG came via a penalty while Boston banked a lot in garbage time as the Spirit chased a deficit. Still, it's clear that the Spirit haven't been limiting opponents' chances to the same extent as they did early in the season.

What can make a difference? Maybe the return of Lucia Di Guglielmo will provide a stabilizing force to a fullback depth that has been in consistent flux. Or Monique Ngock's adjustment process to the league, and the team, will be exponential, not linear. Or Hal Hershfelt will return to level and role we've seen before as an elite destroyer. Or Leicy Santos will be healthy and she elevates Washington's press.

But if you're in any way invested in the success of the Spirit down the stretch of the season and into the playoffs, keep an eye on whether the team is recapturing their defensive form from earlier in the season. Because it could be the difference between silverware, another star above the crest, and a celebration on their home field.