Cut Open: Monday Takeaways (5/26/25)

All stats courtesy of FBref unless otherwise noted

Apologies for the lack of post-Hell is Real update last week - life got in the way. There’s good news and bad news. The good news is I’m back in your inbox (or however you’re reading this) on this holiday weekend with some FC Cincinnati takes. The bad news is that some of those are about the Orange and Blue’s rough Sunday night trip to Atlanta.

1. Transition Woes

A quick glance at the box score of Sunday night’s game might lead one to believe that it was just one of those days for FCC where the ball didn’t go in the net. The Orange and Blue finished with 63% and 30 shots to Atlanta’s 12. The Orange and Blue forced Brad Guzan to make eight saves while Roman Celentano faced just seven on target shots.

However, to those who watched the game, and those who dig deeper into the numbers, Atlanta was clearly the more dangerous team and it wasn’t particularly close. The Five Stripes finished the night with 3.92 expected goals per American Soccer Analysis data to the Orange and Blue’s 1.73. That’s 0.32 xG/shot for Atlanta compared to 0.06 xG/shot for FCC.

Atlanta’s first two goals, coming in a five-ish minute window following Nick Hagglund’s injury and exit1, have me less concerned than some of the goals the Five Stripes didn’t score. The Orange and Blue’s defense was clearly unsettled following the substitution, and set piece goals, while obviously not ideal, will happen to every team from time to time.

The real cause for concern was how easy it was for Atlanta to create high-quality chances across the game’s full 90 minutes, particularly in transition. Emmanuel Latte Lath and Miguel Almiron’s ability to attack directly at retreating back lines would be a problem for every MLS team. The Orange and Blue’s struggles in defensive transition hurt the team last year and certainly again on Sunday.

Game state didn’t help matters, either. After the one-two punch of Atlanta’s first half goals, FCC was forced to push higher in an effort to get back in the game. That pressure left the Orange and Blue’s center backs in uncomfortable positions, with no better example than Matt Miazga left one-on-one with Latte Lath on a ball over the top.

Despite dominating possession, the Orange and Blue struggled to create much in the way of quality scoring opportunities. On far too many occasions FCC settled for speculative efforts from outside the 18-yard-box against a settled Atlanta defensive unit. The Orange and Blue couldn’t take advantage of winger-turned wingback Saba Lobzhanidze defensively on the team’s attacking left and Atlanta’s three center backs stood up to everything FCC threw at them.

On the bright side, few, if any, other MLS teams, have the talent to be as dangerous as Atlanta is in those situations. The Five Stripes are a bad matchup for FCC in normal circumstances and an even worse one with a lead. Luckily, the Orange and Blue won’t face a matchup like that every week.

FCC has the opportunity to right the ship quickly as FC Dallas comes to town on. Wednesday. I’ll be there, too, so look out for some on the ground takes in the coming days. If you’re looking for me, I’ll be the one not booing Lucho Acosta in his return to the West End.

2. The Leap

One major positive about Sunday is the continued progression of Dado Valenzuela. He might just be making the leap in front of our eyes. Valenzuela finished the night with seven shots, 0.5 xG, and 0.53 raw G+ (8th highest across the league on the weekend). Even outside of the stats, Valenzuela simply looks more comfortable, and effective, on the field. He’s physically on a level with the players around him, and clearly, judging by his nutmeg of a defender in the penalty area, is operating with the confidence that he belongs there, too.

He was consistently dangerous operating in the right half-space, pairing well with Orellano pushing up from his right wingback position. Having an option to provide width as Orellano cuts inside onto his favored left foot should make FCC’s attack more effective, and Dado was able to get on the ball in positions to find cutbacks across goal.

Given the unfortunate injury news about Hagglund, Noonan might have the opportunity to shift the Orange and Blue’s setup. With Valenzuela thriving, a move to a 4-2-3-1 starting shape shifting to a 3-2-5 in FCC’s possession shape with Dado in the left half-space and Evander in the right supporting Denkey could be a way forward for FCC as it deals with a thinner center back room for the time being.

3. Roman’s Wall

Even after Sunday, Celentano ranks as one of the best shot stoppers in Major League Soccer. According to American Soccer Analysis data, Celentano’s shot stopping has prevented more than four (4.04) goals above expectation based on a post-shot expected goals model. That mark is third in MLS so far, trailing only Carlos Coronel (5.19) and Zack Steffen (5.17).

In previous seasons, Celentano has shown some improvement in terms of shot stopping, finishing both 2023 and 2024 with slightly positive numbers. However, so far at least in 2025, Celentano has made a leap. So far into the season, we should be on watch to see if this is merely a hot streak or if Celentano has taken a step forward.

Shot stopping can fluctuate more than other stats but Celentano’s improvements are certainly helping the Orange and Blue paper over the fact that the team really hasn’t played all that well yet in 2025. If he can continue this form AND the team starts actually playing well, FCC could be in the hunt for silverware.