Coin Flips
FC Cincinnati was on the losing side of a coin flip on Sunday, a position it mostly avoided in 2025.
Depending on how emotionally invested you are in the success of FC Cincinnati, it might be a good time to take a deep breath. Sunday night's 1-0 loss to Toronto FC wasn't great, but the sky isn't falling. Not yet, at least.
FCC'd
The most charitable view of Sunday's result is as a coin flip that went Toronto's way. There wasn't a ton to separate the teams - FCC didn't create a whole lot but Toronto didn't really either. In the end Dániel Sallói took his opportunity and that was the difference. Sometimes the ball goes in the goal, sometimes it doesn't. FCC won a whole lot of coin flips (and lots of bets with longer odds) last season en route to a second place finish in the Supporters' Shield.

Again, that's the charitable view. For large stretches of Sunday's 1-0 loss to Toronto FC, FCC was disjointed and generally uninspiring. Simply, the vibes were bad.
In possession, the Orange and Blue struggled to move the ball up the field consistently and to generate dangerous chances once it was there. After the game, manager Pat Noonan said of the team's lack of attacking cohesion, "You can't pinpoint one thing: how we progress the ball, how creative we are in one-v-one moments, decision making in and around goal. It's all of it. You can see it. You can feel it. There are not a lot of ideas and confidence when we have the ball."
Based on what we saw, that's...a pretty fair assessment and one that's indicative of a team with a long way to go to playing its best soccer.
It's important to note that it's still way too early to be making any sweeping conclusions about much of anything - we're only three games into the 2026 season. But for a team that talked a lot about a refresh in the offseason, some unwanted comparisons to the worst parts of the 2025 season are bubbling to the surface. If coin flips started to even out last year, FCC likely would've ended the season as a pretty mediocre team. There's plenty of season left and year-over-year changes for the Orange and Blue to play better soccer but time is ticking.
Evander's Return
In good news, Evander returned to the field and played about 20 minutes. Unfortunately, he wasn't the One Weird Trick the Orange and Blue needed to immediately solve its issues in possession.
Dado Valenzuela had some nice moments in his 60+ minutes on the field but still didn't give FCC what it needed in the middle of the field. Similarly to last week against Minnesota, he struggled to find the ball centrally and do the ball progression FCC really relies on its #10 to do.
At half time, Noonan told Apple TV's Jillian Sakovits that Valenzuela and Pavel Bucha would play wider in the second half, which facilitated more touches for the pair but little threat in Zone 14.

The Orange and Blue's wing backs, already carrying a huge ball progression and chance creation burden, could be left to play aimless crosses in from the wings by a Toronto defense ready to win every header. FCC played more passes in the final third than Toronto but struggled to create a final, dangerous look.
Evander's full time return should provide a level of passing that the team desperately needs. Crucially, his gravity should make things easier for the wing backs, too. If FCC's attacking spacing can be improve, the resulting chances should tick up in quality, too. The sooner he's fully match fit, the better for the Orange and Blue.
Matched Up
For the second straight week, FCC's opponent lined up with three center backs and for the second straight week, FCC struggled. Against an Atlanta United team (that has gone on and looked like one of the worst teams in MLS) with two central defenders, the Orange and Blue were able to play direct, skipping the midfield for large stretches of the game.
With an extra center back on the field, FCC has opted to attempt to move the ball from back to front in a more measured way, playing through pressure. It's been a struggle. Miles Robinson is a very, very good passing center back but, playing in the middle of the Orange and Blue's back three, he has limited options to play line breaking passes. Nick Hagglund and Gilberto Flores are solid central defenders but they're no reliable options to play the ball forward.
Too often against Toronto, the Orange and Blue ended up playing the ball to the sideline where opposing pressure was waiting to close down, either winning the ball back outright or forcing it backwards. Right now, FCC just doesn't have an effective and consistent counter. Evander's return should help but its ball progression continues to be a major issue for the Orange and Blue.
I have a feeling there will be some things that warrant a deeper dive, though I'm not exactly looking forward to that process. Keep an eye out later in the week for a deeper dive.