Two posts in two weeks - not yet a streak but trending in that direction. What I’m envisioning right now as a cadence for this thing: a deep dive into one (or a few) FC Cincinnati topics a week that I’ve been thinking about about.

Hopefully, by answering my own questions, this project will be interesting enough for y’all to keep reading, too.

All data is from Fbref unless otherwise noted.

So What’s Next?

Even before Lucho Acosta’s cryptic post-match comments following FC Cincinnati’s season ending defeat, the importance of the 2024 offseason loomed large. As currently constructed, the Orange and Blue should be in the middle of a championship contention window. But an offseason priority list that started and ended with how to get the best out of the Acosta’s peak seasons could suddenly be much more daunting - and represent a foundational change to FCC on the field.

Let’s start with the known-knowns. Per the MLS Players’ Association’s 2025 Free Agent List, Yamil Asad, Nick Hagglund, Miles Robinson, and Sergio Santos could be free agents.1 Add in players on loan returning to their parent clubs, Kevin Kelsy, Luca Orellano, and Nicholas Gioacchini and Chris Albright is looking at replacing nearly 9,300 minutes of on-field production.

In terms of minutes played and on-field impact, the biggest contributors to replace are Robinson and Orellano.

A potential Robinson departure seems the likeliest given the midseason signings of Teenage Hadebe and Chidozie Awaziem plus the expected return of Matt Miazga in 2025. Per the MLSPA, Hadebe ($854,952 guaranteed), Awaziem ($1,205,675 guaranteed), and Miazga ($1,525,000 guaranteed) all make less than Robinson ($1,578,580 guaranteed). There’s a universe where FCC could fit all four on the roster but using that much allocation money on four centerbacks, when only three are playing at a time, doesn’t make much sense from a team building perspective. FCC isn’t bereft of centerback depth, either. Ian Murphy, Kip Keller, and Alvas Powell have all demonstrated an ability to play the position in the league and London Aghedo could continue to be a developmental piece who can at least fill out a bench spot in 2025.

Simply put, another year with Robinson in Orange and Blue doesn’t seem like the best way to maximize roster resources.

Rumors of Orellano’s option-to-buy already being picked up were shot down per Laurel Pfahler’s reporting but the possibility remains. Given Asad’s career resurgence at left wingback in 2024 and Senior Minimum Salary budget charge, it seems likely he’ll be back in Orange and Blue next year. Whether he can handle a full season at wingback, if that’s even the plan, remains to be seen. The odds of Orellano returning feel higher, based on no reporting whatsoever, and that likelihood would increase even further if Lucho Acosta’s departure comes to pass. How exactly to maximize what Orellano on the field deserves its own dedicated space, too. So stay tuned for that.

Which brings us to the major piece of this conversation: Lucho Acosta’s future in Orange and Blue.

Whither Lucho And The Need For Preseason Streams

Though nothing is finalized and Acosta’s return is still a possibility, it’s worth considering what FCC would be losing and what some potential solutions could be. So, join me in briefly engaging with this hypothetical.

If Lucho were to depart the Queen City, Albright faces replacing nearly 12,000 minutes of on-field production when Acosta’s minutes are added to the aforementioned departures. Additionally, those players no longer or potentially not on the roster combined to contribute 39 goals (29.1 xG) and 28 assists (24.7 xAG). In terms of 2024 totals, that’s 68% of the team’s goals scored, 67% of assists, 60% of xG, and 66% of xAG.

So what would a Lucho-less FCC look like? Trying to find a one-to-one replacement for Acosta is likely impossible. So Albright and Pat Noonan taking the opportunity to make some changes to how the team attacks seems like a solution. Yes, at some level, this is about replacing Lucho’s production in the aggregate. That likely means adding additional talent but also tweaking how we’ve grown accustomed to seeing Noonan’s teams play.

Don’t get me wrong, I’ve been a consistent Lucho evangelist during his time in Cincinnati. Acosta’s dominance on the ball to create for himself and teammates obviously worked out for FCC over the past few seasons. But a system where more players consistently threaten from all over but building an attacking system that is more well-rounded could raise the team’s ceiling. The other side of that coin, however, is that the floor could fall out of the team entirely with the departure of the team’s talisman.

Something that makes Major League Soccer so interesting (and at the same time frustrating) is the limited ways a team can bring in talent. An Acosta departure would mean an open Designated Player spot but, assuming Orellano’s $2.8 million fee is triggered, it’s difficult to envision a roster where he isn’t filling one DP spot on FCC’s 2025 roster. Should Kévin Denkey (more on him below) also join as a DP, the Orange and Blue would be left with one available DP spot plus three U22 Initiative spots.2

Without Acosta the avenues for some stylistic shifts, within reason, along with different team-building priorities become more realistic.

Given the roster’s current construction one possibility seems to be a shift to a 3-4-3 with a returning Orellano playing in the front band of attackers paired with Denkey and another high-priced winger. FCC returning to an offensive structure built around moments of transition and Orellano plus another dribbly boi on the other wing plus late runs from Asad on the flank plus Pavel Bucha from midfield sounds pretty good to me at this point. A solution like that would limit the need for a big roster overhaul but could at least theoretically fill some of an Acosta-sized offensive hole.

Plus, selfishly, this level of uncertainty in an offseason would certainly justify the name of this project, too.

Introduction To Kévin Denkey

As reported by GiveMeSport’s Tom Bogert, the Orange and Blue appear to be on the verge of a $15 million deal to sign striker Kévin Denkey from Cercle Brugge in the Belgium’s Jupiler Pro League.

In recent years, many MLS teams, FCC included, have turned to the second (or third) tier of European leagues to find contributors in their peak years for reasonable fees and salaries. Looking at you, Pavel Bucha. However, Denkey, at just 23, presumably with his best soccer still ahead of him, slightly bucks this trend. If the reported fee is correct, it’s a substantial outlay. But it’s not my money and he’ll count against the cap the same as any other DP signing.

Importantly, the data suggests Denkey should provide something that the Orange and Blue lacked last year: a real striker. The lack of a striker making runs in the box was apparent as FCC bowed out of the playoffs against NYCFC. Denkey gets shots at a very good rate (3.77/90 over the last 365 days). Those shots are also in dangerous positions (0.15 npxG/shot this year, 0.14 npxG/shot last year). He’s been a solid option to receive forward passes (9.27 progressive passes received/90) and demonstrated an ability to find space in the box and receive the ball there (6.95 touches in the attacking penalty area/90).

Though Denkey’s underlying data indicates an ability to find teammates in dangerous positions (0.18 xAG/90) even if the assists haven’t materialized yet (just one assist in the last two seasons.) Fellow Belgian Golden Boot winner Hugo Cuypers had a solid but not great first season in MLS with the Chicago Fire but, should the Denkey signing go through, there will be plenty of time to break down what exactly he’ll bring to Cincinnati. Consider me cautiously optimistic at this point, though.

Still on the Docket:

• The Obi conundrum
• How Orellano fits in
• Kubo’s value

Have other ideas? Let me know!